Long-term seasonal forecast of temperature and rainfall anomalies
This page shows temperature and rainfall anomalies that are expected to prevail over European and Mediterranean areas during the next 7 months. This service has started in June 2013; the set of 7 months shown will be updated monthly during the fire season. Normally within the first week of each month a forecast for the next 2 months will be made available.
The maps are based on the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Seasonal Forecasting System named S4 (System 4) and are provided to EFFIS users as experimental products. S4 anomalies of temperature and rainfall are estimated from the mean deviation of the seasonal forecast from the model climate. The maps highlight the areas which are expected to be colder/warmer and dryer/wetter (than normal) over Europe and Mediterranean countries, with an obvious linkage to potentially higher forest fire danger.
Please, take in account that the longer the forecast horizon, the less accurate the forecast will be.
Additional details on seasonal forecasting can be found here, while detailed technical illustration of the Seasonal Forecast System S4 can be consulted on the related pages of the ECMWF web site