Fire Danger Forecast

The fire danger forecast module of EFFIS generates daily maps of 1 to 10 days of forecasted fire danger level using numerical weather predictions. The module is active all year around, although the core of the wildfire season is, in most countries, from 1st of March to 31st of October.

EFFIS normally operates using meteorological forecastdata received daily from 3 systems, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), French (MeteoFrance) and German (DWD) meteorological services.

After a test phase of 5 years, during which different fire danger indices were implemented to compute fire danger, in 2007 the EFFIS network has adopted the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System as the method to assess the fire danger level in a harmonized way throughout Europe.

Fire danger is mapped in 6 classes (very low, low, medium, high, very high and extreme) with a spatial resolution of about  16 km (ECMWF data), 10 km (MF data) and 36 km (DWD data). The fire danger classes are the same for all countries and maps show a harmonized picture of the spatial distribution of fire danger level throughout EU.

The following are the FWI values used as thresholds of the fire danger classes in the map:  

Fire Danger Classes FWI ranges
(upper bound excluded)
Very low < 5.2
Low  5.2 - 11.2
Moderate  11.2 - 21.3
High  21.3 - 38.0
Very high  38.0 - 50.0
Extreme >= 50.0

 

The maps of forecasted fire danger level can be consulted through the web mapping interface of EFFIS and are also emailed daily to the users.

Additional information on the map viewer tool downloading the User Guide to the EFFIS Current Situation.

Mission

As the science and knowledge service of the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the whole policy cycle.